In 280 Days
US Recession by End of 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
No | 80% |
Yes | 28% |
In 3 Days
Fed Decision in Apr 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
Hike >0bps | 25% |
Cut >25bps | 3% |
Cut <=25bps | 1% |
0bps (Unchanged) | -% |
In 52 Days
Fed Decision in Jun 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
0bps (Unchanged) | 99% |
Cut <=25bps | 10% |
Cut >25bps | 6% |
Hike >0bps | -% |
In 4 Days
ECB Interest Rates in Apr 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
Hike >0bps | 10% |
Cut >25bps | 6% |
Cut <=25bps | 6% |
0bps (Unchanged) | -% |
In 12 Days
Unemployment Rate in Apr 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
4.4% | 66% |
<=3.9% | 62% |
4.5% | 61% |
4.3% | 59% |
4.1% | 53% |
4.2% | 51% |
4.0% | 47% |
4.6% | 43% |
>=4.7% | 10% |
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In 94 Days
Fed Decision in Jul 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
0bps (Unchanged) | 88% |
Cut <=25bps | 16% |
Hike <=25bps | 8% |
Cut >25bps | 8% |
Hike >25bps | 6% |
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In 12 Days
Jobs Added in Apr 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
0 - 50k | 85% |
150k - 200k | 85% |
100k - 150k | 80% |
50k - 100k | 80% |
200k - 250k | 80% |
-50k - 0 | 80% |
>250k | 61% |
<-50k | 57% |
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In 46 Days
ECB Interest Rates in Jun 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
Hike <=25bps | 80% |
0bps (Unchanged) | 67% |
Cut <=25bps | 12% |
Hike >25bps | 11% |
Cut >25bps | 7% |
View All
In 309 Days
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
Yes | 94% |
In 16 Days
Inflation in Apr 2026
Selection | Chance to Win |
|---|---|
0.6% | 70% |
0.5% | 47% |
0.7% | 45% |
0.8% | 44% |
0.4% | 42% |
>=1.1% | 39% |
<=0.3% | 10% |
1.0% | 9% |
0.9% | 9% |
View All
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