Will Tesla Do Well Right After Earnings? powered by Signal Markets

How it works

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla records a percentage increase of 1% or more in its post-earnings trading performance. The percentage increase is calculated by comparing the company's closing trading performance immediately before its earnings report on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 (at 4:00 PM ET) against its trading performance at 9:40 AM ET on Thursday, April 23, 2026. If the post-earnings trading performance results in an increase of less than 1%, remains the same, or decreases, the market will resolve to "No". The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found [here](https://www.nadex.com/rules/). The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.68 can be found [here](https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/7w5E7Lp4YMAUvv0c7ssYUr/c5bf8080840bb947bbfa7febfb8c1eab/CDNA_Certification_of_Industry__Event_Contract.pdf). For purposes of settling this contract the stock price(s) used will be based on the price(s) reported by the Source Agency and not by the company. Settlement Source: Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook The settlement of all Corporate Event Contracts specified by the Exchange is administered by Signal Markets LLC, which performs contract settlement based on the parameters below. Signal Markets LLC coordinates the collection, interpretation, and application of data used to settle the Corporate Event Contracts set forth in Exchange Rule 14.68. In performing its proprietary settlement function, Signal Markets LLC relies on multiple data sources, including, without limitation: market data that is publicly available from sources such as Bloomberg, official company investor relations press releases, third-party analyst consensus reports, and other publicly available information. This may include earnings estimates, public or corporate announcements regarding historical earnings and revenues, forward projections, analyst commentary, market price performance before and after announcements, and other disclosures that may materially affect or contribute to earnings outcomes. Signal Markets LLC relies on third-party information that has been determined to be reliable, but all Corporate Event Contract settlement is subject to the Exchange Rules and Exchange Rule 14.68. Signal Markets LLC may update the settlement process from time to time after informing the Exchange in order for the Exchange to update this document. Such updates to the settlement process may include the resolution of market data discrepancies, corrections to previously published information, or adjustments necessitated by revised earnings release dates or times. All updates will be made pursuant to the Exchange Rules with notice to the Exchange Participants or as otherwise required by applicable law. Exchange Participants acknowledge that Signal Markets LLC's use of third-party data providers does not constitute an endorsement by, or affiliation with, such providers. Signal Markets LLC is not responsible for errors or omissions in third-party data, as set forth in the Exchange Rules. For Corporate Event Contracts settled based on a match-up of two or more entities, Signal Markets LLC calculates a percentage comparing the entities in order to determine the entity that performed the best based on earnings estimates and market close conditions the day before earnings are announced and post-earnings event outcomes, calculated on the last day of the week based on market close conditions. Performance is defined as market conditions that result in a better percentage move, whether negative or positive. Based on the above, Signal Markets LLC ranks all of the entities and then identifies the entity that performed better than any other entity for a given Corporate Event in order to settle the Corporate Event Contract. For Corporate Event Contracts based on one entity, Signal Markets LLC calculates a percentage in order to determine how the entity that performed based on earnings estimates and market close conditions the day before earnings are announced and post-earnings event outcomes, calculated on day of earnings announcements based on market conditions ten minutes after the announcement or based on market conditions on the last of the week based on market close conditions. Performance is defined as market conditions that result in a better percentage move, whether negative or positive. Based on the above, Signal Markets LLC identifies whether the entity performed better than expectations for a given Corporate Event or how well the entity performed based on a percentage ranking in order to settle the Corporate Event Contract.