How it works

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the company (Anthropic or OpenAI) that first officially confirms an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of its equity securities on a regulated public securities exchange, before January 1, 2040. The other outcome will resolve to "No". If neither company officially confirms an IPO before January 1, 2040, both outcomes will resolve to "No". An IPO is considered "officially confirmed" if any one of the following occurs before January 1, 2040: The company's Form S-1 (or equivalent IPO registration statement) is declared effective by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), or an equivalent regulatory filing is approved by a recognized national securities regulator (e.g., FCA, SEBI, MAS) and made public; The IPO is priced, meaning a final pricing press release or SEC filing (e.g., Form 424B4 or equivalent) publicly confirms the number of shares and offering price; or A public securities exchange (e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, ASX) assigns a ticker symbol and announces that the company has been approved for initial listing pursuant to an IPO. The market resolves on the basis of the date of the relevant confirmation, not the date of the IPO itself or the date of document submission or processing. The announcement must clearly reference an initial public offering of common equity securities and must be public and verifiable through regulatory filings, press releases, or the official website of the exchange or securities regulator. The first company to satisfy any one of these conditions will be deemed to have IPO'd first. The IPO must be the first time the company has conducted a public equity offering on a regulated securities exchange. For purposes of this market, the company must not have previously been publicly traded on any regulated securities exchange (including under a different name, ticker, or corporate structure), must not have previously been traded via OTC, pink sheets, or alternative trading systems providing public investor access (unless such access was limited, unregulated, or not functionally equivalent to a formal exchange listing), and must not have previously undergone an IPO, direct listing, de-SPAC transaction, or public spin-off resulting in public equity trading on a recognized exchange. If a company was previously public but later went private, a subsequent listing shall not be considered a "first-time" listing for purposes of this market. The following ARE encompassed by the resolution criteria: the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective; the company publicly releases final pricing terms via press release or SEC filing; the NYSE or NASDAQ (or comparable other US Equity Exchange) publishes a company profile indicating ticker assignment for IPO listing; or a foreign exchange (e.g., London Stock Exchange) announces that the company has been accepted for IPO listing. The following are NOT encompassed by the resolution criteria: filing of an S-1 or equivalent without subsequent SEC effectiveness, pricing, or listing announcement; direct listings where no new shares are offered; mergers with SPACs or reverse mergers; private placements or offerings limited to institutional or accredited investors; listings of preferred shares, debt instruments, or depositary receipts without a common equity IPO; or speculative media reports or rumors not confirmed by the company, its underwriters, the exchange, or the regulator. If both companies satisfy a confirmation condition on the same calendar day, the market will settle at 1/n, where n is the total number of tied companies. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found at https://www.nadex.com/rules/. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.68 can be found at https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/7w5E7Lp4YMAUvv0c7ssYUr/c5bf8080840bb947bbfa7febfb8c1eab/CDNA_Certification_of_Industry__Event_Contract.pdf. Liquidity may be low while events are live. Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods. Settlement Source: Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook