How it works

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". You receive a US$1 return per contract if your prediction is correct and nothing if it is incorrect. A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: • The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) releases a formal directive ordering heads of affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown", which remains in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. • The United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM) posts an official operating status indicating that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" as of 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. Examples that would resolve the market to No: • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations without executing shutdown plans. • Government closures or operating status changes result strictly from federal holidays, inclement weather, or other non-funding emergencies (unless such closures directly coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official publications, directives, and status announcements from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM). The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found here at https://www.nadex.com/rules/. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.67 can be found at https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/5FYmSvzQOPoVlVO4bnGtIf/184180f54f954f7e4a2a832778b10c39/PUBLIC_CDNA_Statistic_Certification_of_Event_Contract.pdf Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods.