How it works

Background This Corporate Event Contract is designed as a tradable event contract based on a statistical analysis that categorizes the outcome of earnings, in order to determine whether or not a company beats, meets or misses the publicly available earnings forecasts of a company. Because the outcome is based on a statistic which results in a reportable news or information headline, this Corporate Event Contract is a swap. Settlement Language This market will resolve to one of the five tiers set forth above. The five tiers are designed to measure how close a company comes to the publicly available earnings forecasts. The specific outcome tier that captures the realized return (R) of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) across the earnings release window, which is the Yes result. All other outcomes will resolve to "No". The realized return is calculated as: R = (Settlement Price ÷ Reference Price) − 1, expressed as a percentage and rounded to two decimal places in order to satisfy one of the tiers above. The five tiers are defined as follows: Crushed It: R is greater than +7.50% Beat: R is between +1.01% and +7.50%, inclusive Meet: R is between −1.00% and +1.00%, inclusive Miss: R is between −7.50% and −1.01%, inclusive Got Crushed: R is less than −7.50% Reference Price The Reference Price is the 4:00 PM ET official closing print of the primary listing exchange on the last full regular trading session before the earnings release. After-hours reporter: Reference Price = close on the day of release (Wednesday, July 22, 2026). Settlement Price The Settlement Price is the 4:00 PM ET official closing print of the primary listing exchange on the first full regular trading session after the earnings release. After-hours reporter: Settlement Price = close on the next trading day (Thursday, July 23, 2026). Opening prints, pre-market prints, and after-hours prints are not used for settlement. Trading Halts If the underlying is halted and does not reopen prior to the 4:00 PM ET close on the settlement date, the Settlement Price is the last official regular-session print prior to the halt. If the halt spans multiple sessions, the Settlement Price is the last official regular-session print prior to the halt, and the contract settles on that basis at the original scheduled time. Delayed or Missed Filing If the company fails to release earnings on the scheduled date and reschedules within 48 hours, the contract rolls to the new date with Reference and Settlement Prices re-anchored to the new schedule. If the release is delayed beyond 48 hours from the originally scheduled date, the market will be settled as event cancelled. Corporate Actions If a corporate action (stock split, reverse split, special dividend, spinoff) takes effect between the Reference and Settlement dates, both prices are adjusted using the official exchange adjustment factor before R is computed. Ordinary cash dividends are not adjusted for. Restatements Restatements, revisions, or corrections issued after settlement have no effect on the settled outcome. Settlement is final upon official close on the Settlement Date. Market Closures If the scheduled Settlement Date falls on a market holiday or early close with no 4:00 PM ET session, settlement rolls to the next full regular trading session. Half-day sessions (1:00 PM ET close) use the 1:00 PM ET official close as the Settlement Price. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found here. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.68 can be found here. For purposes of settling this contract the stock price(s) used will be based on the price(s) reported by the Source Agency and not by the company. Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods. Settlement Source: Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook The settlement of all Corporate Event Contracts is based on the proprietary settlement methodology of Signal Markets LLC ("SM Method"). The SM Method coordinates the collection, interpretation, and application of data used to settle the Corporate Event Contracts set forth in Exchange Rule 14.68. The settlement is not based on the price of the security, but on the actual event outcome of the pre-defined tiers above, which becomes the Signal Markets market commentary. In performing the proprietary settlement function, the SM Method relies on multiple data sources, including, without limitation: market data that is publicly available from news sources, official company investor relations press releases, third-party analyst consensus reports, and other publicly available information. This may include earnings estimates, public or corporate announcements regarding historical earnings and revenues, forward projections, analyst commentary, market price performance before and after announcements, and other disclosures that may materially affect or contribute to earnings outcomes. The SM Method relies on third-party information that has been determined to be reliable, but all Corporate Event Contract settlement is subject to the Exchange Rules and Exchange Rule 14.68. The SM Method may be updated from time to time after informing the Exchange in order for the Exchange to update this document. Such updates to the settlement process may include the resolution of market data discrepancies, corrections to previously published information, or adjustments necessitated by revised earnings release dates or times. All updates will be made pursuant to the Exchange Rules with notice to the Exchange Participants or as otherwise required by applicable law. Exchange Participants acknowledge that the use of third-party data providers does not constitute an endorsement by, or affiliation with, such providers. Signal Markets LLC is not responsible for errors or omissions in third-party data, as set forth in the Exchange Rules. Other Corporate Event Contracts For Corporate Event Contracts settled based on a match-up of two or more entities, the SM Method calculates a percentage comparing the entities in order to determine the entity that performed the best based on earnings estimates and market close conditions the day before earnings are announced and post-earnings event outcomes, calculated on the last day of the week based on market close conditions. Performance is defined as market conditions that result in a better percentage move, whether negative or positive. Based on the above, the SM Method ranks all of the entities and then identifies the entity that performed better than any other entity for a given Corporate Event in order to settle the Corporate Event Contract. For Corporate Event Contracts based on one entity, the SM Method calculates a percentage in order to determine how the entity that performed based on earnings estimates and market close conditions the day before earnings are announced and post-earnings event outcomes, calculated on day of earnings announcements based on market conditions ten minutes after the announcement or based on market conditions on the last of the week based on market close conditions. Performance is defined as market conditions that result in a better percentage move, whether negative or positive. Based on the above, the SM Method identifies whether the entity performed better than expectations for a given Corporate Event or how well the entity performed based on a percentage ranking in order to settle the Corporate Event Contract.