How it works

This market will resolve to one of the five tiers set forth above. The five tiers are designed to measure how close a company comes to the publicly available earnings forecasts. The specific outcome tier that captures the realized return (R) of Airbnb (ABNB) across the earnings release window, which is the Yes result. All other outcomes will resolve to "No". The realized return is calculated as: R = (Settlement Price / Reference Price) - 1, expressed as a percentage and rounded to two decimal places in order to satisfy one of the tiers above. The five tiers are defined as follows: Crushed It: R is greater than +7.50% Beat: R is between +1.01% and +7.50%, inclusive Meet: R is between -1.00% and +1.00%, inclusive Miss: R is between -7.50% and -1.01%, inclusive Got Crushed: R is less than -7.50% Reference Price The Reference Price is the 4:00 PM ET official closing print of the primary listing exchange on the last full regular trading session before the earnings release. After-hours reporter: Reference Price = close on the day of release (Thursday, May 7, 2026). Settlement Price The Settlement Price is the 4:00 PM ET official closing print of the primary listing exchange on the first full regular trading session after the earnings release. After-hours reporter: Settlement Price = close on the next trading day (Friday, May 8, 2026). Opening prints, pre-market prints, and after-hours prints are not used for settlement. Trading Halts If the underlying is halted and does not reopen prior to the 4:00 PM ET close on the settlement date, the Settlement Price is the last official regular-session print prior to the halt. If the halt spans multiple sessions, the Settlement Price is the last official regular-session print prior to the halt, and the contract settles on that basis at the original scheduled time. Delayed or Missed Filing If the company fails to release earnings on the scheduled date and reschedules within 48 hours, the contract rolls to the new date with Reference and Settlement Prices re-anchored to the new schedule. If the release is delayed beyond 48 hours from the originally scheduled date, the market will be settled as event cancelled. Corporate Actions If a corporate action (stock split, reverse split, special dividend, spinoff) takes effect between the Reference and Settlement dates, both prices are adjusted using the official exchange adjustment factor before R is computed. Ordinary cash dividends are not adjusted for. Restatements Restatements, revisions, or corrections issued after settlement have no effect on the settled outcome. Settlement is final upon official close on the Settlement Date. Market Closures If the scheduled Settlement Date falls on a market holiday or early close with no 4:00 PM ET session, settlement rolls to the next full regular trading session. Half-day sessions (1:00 PM ET close) use the 1:00 PM ET official close as the Settlement Price. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found [here](https://www.nadex.com/rules/). The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.68 can be found [here](https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/7w5E7Lp4YMAUvv0c7ssYUr/c5bf8080840bb947bbfa7febfb8c1eab/CDNA_Certification_of_Industry__Event_Contract.pdf). For purposes of settling this contract the stock price(s) used will be based on the price(s) reported by the Source Agency and not by the company. Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods. Settlement Source: Rule 14.68(c) in the CDNA Rulebook